If you’ve been interested in the Leesburg real estate scene—whether house-hunting, selling, or simply watching from the sidelines—you probably noticed the early spring buyer activity, with homes flying off the market as early as February.
“It’s definitely a seller’s market,” said JC Silvey, a local real estate expert, who’s seen houses draw offers almost as soon as they’re listed. But beneath the strong surface, there are signs that the red-hot market may be cooling—just a little.
“I’m starting to notice subtle shifts,” Silvey said. “It’s not in the data yet, but it’s just a feeling I have when I show homes and put listings on the market and see what kind of response I get from those listings and showings that make me believe there might be cracks in the housing market that have me a little worried.”
When we spoke in April, Silvey, a realtor and certified real estate appraiser with Compass Real Estate, said a single-family home in Leesburg is the most desirable option for most buyers, with a typical price of $800,000 to $900,000.
“I don’t think you can get [a single-family home] in Leesburg for less than $800,000,” he said. “Those homes are out there, but they’re unicorns, and you might wonder what kind of condition they’re in if they’re under 800. A million-dollar property in Leesburg is really common for a standard home in one of the neighborhoods.”
Investment vs Lifestyle
Silvey said that condos and townhouses continue to be in strong demand for people entering the market for the first time. “It’s hard to jump into a home for the first time at $800,000-$900,000. The mid-500s to mid-700s are a little easier for first-time purchasers, and that market remains strong,” he said.
For long-term appreciation, he recommends a single-family home, followed by townhouses and then condos. “Condos have the hardest time when the market turns,” he said.
Over the long-term, Silvey said, real estate is a great investment. “Over the past 50 years, it’s been pretty consistent,” he said. “I don’t worry about the long term. But most people don’t look at it as an investment. For 90 percent of people, they are buying a home, a place to raise a family, a place that will provide happiness for them, and they shouldn’t base it on whether that home appreciates in the next three to five years. If that’s your time frame, I might advise you to rent, because you might get caught in the wrong part of the cycle. If you’re looking at 10 or 15 years, it is a great investment, and over that time frame, it will do fine. There have been very few 10- to 15-year periods where you would have lost money.”
The Perfect Place
In terms of who’s buying homes in Leesburg, Silvey said, Covid changed the demographics. “When a lot of employers were not requiring people to be in the office every day, people with small homes with kids inside the beltway, who were paying a lot of money for that home, drove out here and loved what they found,” he said. “It’s the perfect place if you only have to drive in [to the D.C. area] a couple times a week.”
Those families from inside the beltway, he said, discovered more room and great value compared to what they had closer to the city. As a result, there’s been a consistent price appreciation since Covid. “It’s not stopped at all, which makes me worried that at some point, the music ends,” he said. “Real estate is like any other business cycle; it goes up and down, and it’s just a matter of time before that cycle will result in some lower values.”
Resilient Market
Despite the rise in interest rates, from 3 percent to 6 and 7 percent, Silvey hasn’t seen a decrease in demand for homes. “I thought that would have crushed the market, but it didn’t. It was really resilient, which surprised me,” he said.
Silvey isn’t seeing a lot of construction in Leesburg, as most of the land in town has been developed. “It’s zoned to prevent more development, so there’s not a lot of new construction,” he said. “There’s a lot more east of Leesburg, along the Toll Road, where the county wants to focus development close to the metro station.”
He has seen a shift in one particular amenity: “After Covid, having a pool became important to a lot of people,” he said. “Prior to Covid, a pool didn’t add a lot of value, because just as many people didn’t want a pool as did. But now a lot of people want them and are willing to pay a premium, which is [a trend that is] settling down a little bit.”
Silvey recommends selling a home sooner than later, if you’re considering your options. “With uncertainty in the economy, people don’t make big decisions,” he said. “They don’t pay a lot for a big home, or they might delay that decision. If you’re planning to move, I would not delay thinking things will be better later. Right now you can sell pretty quickly and for a great price, so I would encourage you to do so versus waiting for a future that could be a lot worse.”
Overall, he said, Leesburg is a highly desirable location that will remain a solid market. “Downtown Leesburg is really coming into its own,” he said. “Every time I drive by, there’s another business popping up, and I’m excited about the future of Leesburg.”
To learn more about Loudoun County real estate, go to https://www.silveyresidential.com/.
"There have been very few 10- to 15-year periods where you would have lost money.”