In the life of a mortgage originator, we are constantly trying to help our clients lock in the best rates at the best time. No one could have ever predicted the effects the year 2020 would have on our lives, let alone mortgage interest rates and the housing industry. Every day I have clients asking if and when they should lock, buy, refinance or when will rates go lower? The reality is that it is pretty much impossible to try and time the market and no one has a crystal ball. My advice to clients is always that you need to do what is right for your personal situation today and if it makes sense now then move forward. Don’t try to predict the market or time it. Take low rates as they come and don’t pass up the opportunity hoping for lower rates. Focus on your goals TODAY!
With that being said, I would like to comment on the historical trend of rates and where we see them possibly heading. As we enter 2022 we are seeing a slight uptick in rates primarily due to three major items: (1) Inflation- 4th quarter of 2021 the Annual US Inflation Rate was the highest since June of 1982 according to data published in TradingEconomics.Com. (2) Economic Recovery-We continue to see strong indicators of an improving economy and lower unemployment claims being reported, which again could lead to increasing rates. And finally… (3) Fed Policy Changes- The Federal Reserve announced that it will slow down its bond purchasing program. Jerome Powell has stated that “with elevated inflation pressures and a rapidly strengthening labor market, the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support.”
Over the past few months, we have seen all sorts of spikes and drops in rates; even though many would logically think rates should just be steadily moving up. With the pattern of the U.S. economy showing some signs of recovery, we will have some setbacks here and there, and there are a variety of factors that can still tug on the direction of rates. 2022 will be an interesting year to see where rates really land, but one thing I do know is that interest rates today are still at historical lows compared to where they have been and much of the population is sitting on more equity than they have ever had. Now is the time to reach out and we can help determine if a refinance makes sense for you.
Sources:
https://themortgagereports.com/86225/mortgage-rates-forecast-2022
https://time.com/nextadvisor/mortgages/how-fed-impacts-mortgage-rates/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/why-unemployment-benefits-claims-hit-lowest-level-since-1969.html
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Sara Koelzer
Area Manager/ SVP of Mortgage Lending
sarak@rate.com
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NMLS ID: 400361
